+- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com)
+-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html)
+--- Forum: Lounge (/forum-564.html)
+---- Forum: College Sports and Conference Realignment (/forum-637.html)
+---- Thread: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? (/thread-831263.html)
NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - BullsFanInTX - 10-25-2017 09:08 PM
Are there any legitimate contenders for the NY6 bowl for the so called "G5" outside of the AAC, or do you think it is locked up for USF, UCF, or Memphis? If there are other contenders, who are they? Curious as to the general thought process. Marshall? Boise St?
NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - Stay Cool - 10-25-2017 09:11 PM
It would take a fair amount of help, since AAC teams are the only undefeated teams at the moment
(To the best of my knowledge, apologies to any fans of undefeated teams I missed)
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - BullsFanInTX - 10-25-2017 09:12 PM
So I guess the question is, what would it take for another team to get it. Multiple losses by AAC? Memphis winning AAC? Boise winning MWC?
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - msm96wolf - 10-25-2017 09:18 PM
SMU playing spoiler is about the only thing I could see happen to UCF and/or Memphis. Then UCF beats USF. Could possibly open the door for other one loss teams but I think it is highly unlikely to happen.
NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - Jjoey52 - 10-25-2017 09:31 PM
I think if the AAC blows this, they have a problem. The only one I see is possibly Boise and they need to run the table and get major help from lower level AAC teams. I have never seen western football without an upper echelon team anywhere like this before. PAC is pretty much dead for playoff also.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - cotton1991 - 10-25-2017 10:12 PM
(10-25-2017 09:12 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote: So I guess the question is, what would it take for another team to get it. Multiple losses by AAC? Memphis winning AAC? Boise winning MWC?
If Memphis runs the table and wins the CCG they're a shoe-in imho.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - solohawks - 10-25-2017 10:17 PM
Marshall and Toledo are 32 in the ap poll based off of "others receiving votes." Sdsu is 29 but they likely won't win the division so they don't count. If the eventual AAC champion (assuming it's Memphis, UCF, or USF) suffers two unexpected losses and Marshall or Toledo win out, the AAC may miss out. But it would take a combination of events occuring even more unlikely than those that kept the US out of the world cup
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - toddjnsn - 10-26-2017 04:41 AM
REMAINING GAMES:
USF: Houston (4-3), @UConn (3-4), Tulsa (2-6), @UCF (6-0)
UCF: D1AA, @SMU (5-2), UConn (3-4), @Temple (3-5), USF (7-0)
Memphis: Tulane (3-4), @Tulsa (2-6), SMU (5-2), ECU (2-6)
One thing I'll say is that the AAC isn't seen quite as strong this year as some years, but USF/UCF steal the show over everyone in G5.
The AAC champ having 2 Losses is possible (Memphis winning AACC game as easiest example)... but who would compare to Memphis (or UCF/USF each losing two before beating each other then Memphis)?
Here's my rankings (record most important) IF either of them Win Out:
Toledo: 6-1 (Plays NIU, WMU, @Ohio + Ohio MACC) -- Never lost to any G5; Lost to @Miami-FL by a lot after a half-time lead
Marshall: 6-1 (Plays WKU, SoMiss + SoMiss/NTex CUSAC) -- Never lost to any G5; Lost to @NC-State by 17
Boise: 5-2 (Plays @CSU, @Fresno + Fresno MWC) -- Beat Troy + Never Lost to any G5; Lost to @Wash-State by 3, Virginia by a lot
Fresno: 5-2 (Plays @Wyoming, Boise + Boise/CSU MWC) -- Never lost to any G5; Only Lost to Alabama + Washington!
ColoSt: 6-2 (Plays @Wyoming, Boise + Fresno MWC) -- Beat Oregon St + Never lost to any G5; Lost to Colorado + @Alabama
N. Illinois: 6-2 (Plays @Toledo, WMU + Ohio MACC) -- Beat @Nebraska; HAS lost to a G5 (Ranked @SDSU) + Lost to Boston College by 3
SoMiss: 5-2 (Plays @Tennesse, @Marshall + Marshall CUSAC) -- HAS lost to a G5 (NTexas) + Lost to Kentucky in a close one
Ohio: 6-2 (Plays Toledo + Toledo/NIU MACC) -- Beat Kansas if that counts; HAS lost to a G5 (CMU) + Lost to @Purdue by a lot
------------
IMO: Given that the "BCS" bowls give P5 conference Champs auto-bids, and the G5 is based on Ranking AMONG conference Champs -- I think it'd be best to have a Play-In/Play-Off game in mid-December between the Top 2 G5 Conf Champs to see who goes. A Regular Bowl would be slated to have Either One, so no belated team-shifting-around to bowls later.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - TripleA - 10-26-2017 05:44 AM
It's possible but unlikely that any of UCF, USF or Memphis lose before the AAC CCG. If that's the case, it's locked up. Since Memphis is the one with a loss right now (to UCF), let's say they lose to SMU. Even then, they will have beaten a high ranked, likely undefeated UCF or USF in the CCG, so I don't see them losing it.
USF could lose to Houston, but that's it before the season ending UCF game. If they lose to UH and beat UCF and Memphis, they will have one loss with wins over 2 ranked teams at the end. Shoo-in.
I don't see UCF losing before the USF game, so win that and beat Memphis, and that's an all-time lock. Nobody else really has a chance to get a ranked win late, so it is almost certainly one of those 3, with the winner of UCF-USF the most likely.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - ken d - 10-26-2017 12:47 PM
If you go back less than two weeks, the conversation was very different. So, I'm not ready to say that it won't change again in the next few weeks. We're only just starting to learn how good (or bad) some of these schools really are.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - BullsFanInTX - 10-26-2017 12:53 PM
Suppose SMU beats both Memphis and UCF, and USF also loses to Houston. Would that open some doors for others. Suppose Memphis loses to SMU, then still wins AAC against a 1 loss USF/UCF. Probably won't happen, but then you have a 2 loss Memphis as AAC rep.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - stever20 - 10-26-2017 12:54 PM
Thing is, we're pretty close with the AAC where there won't be any chances for them to not get it...
If USF wins next game they have left before UCF UConn and Tulsa....
If UCF wins next FBS game they have left before USF Uconn and Temple
Memphis has SMU left- but outside of that it's Tulane, Tulsa, and ECU
If it's 10-1 Memphis vs really even 1 loss either way USF/UCF- it's going to be the AAC- and not be close.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - mturn017 - 10-26-2017 12:56 PM
I don't know about AAC standings but one of them would have to not win the conference for another conference champ to step in.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - dbackjon - 10-26-2017 12:56 PM
IT is the AAC's to lose at this moment.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - megadrone - 10-26-2017 01:09 PM
It'll get interesting if it's a 2 loss AAC champ vs a 1 loss Toledo or Marshall, neither of whom have fantastic resumes and won't have beaten a world beater in their respective CCG.
A 2 loss USF -- perhaps Marshall looks better, perhaps not. A 2 loss Memphis would probably get the nod.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - stever20 - 10-26-2017 01:14 PM
(10-26-2017 01:09 PM)megadrone Wrote: It'll get interesting if it's a 2 loss AAC champ vs a 1 loss Toledo or Marshall, neither of whom have fantastic resumes and won't have beaten a world beater in their respective CCG.
A 2 loss USF -- perhaps Marshall looks better, perhaps not. A 2 loss Memphis would probably get the nod.
the problem is that on the East side- if UCF and USF win their next FBS game- they'll both enter that final game with 0-1 loss, meaning if they win head to head and the CCG they have 1 loss.
On the West side Memphis really has 1 tough game left.
For AAC to not get it realistically, Memphis would have to lose that 1 tough game, and then win the CCG.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - megadrone - 10-26-2017 01:25 PM
(10-26-2017 01:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:(10-26-2017 01:09 PM)megadrone Wrote: It'll get interesting if it's a 2 loss AAC champ vs a 1 loss Toledo or Marshall, neither of whom have fantastic resumes and won't have beaten a world beater in their respective CCG.
A 2 loss USF -- perhaps Marshall looks better, perhaps not. A 2 loss Memphis would probably get the nod.
the problem is that on the East side- if UCF and USF win their next FBS game- they'll both enter that final game with 0-1 loss, meaning if they win head to head and the CCG they have 1 loss.
On the West side Memphis really has 1 tough game left.
For AAC to not get it realistically, Memphis would have to lose that 1 tough game, and then win the CCG.
And if that does happen, Memphis' overall body of work probably looks better than the likely MAC, CUSA and MW champions, and they would still get the bid.
It's a tougher guess if USF has 2 losses. That would mean that both USF and UCF collapsed but USF won the conference. With a weak OOC slate, maybe Marhshall, Toledo or Fresno look as good or better.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - stever20 - 10-26-2017 01:35 PM
(10-26-2017 01:25 PM)megadrone Wrote:(10-26-2017 01:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:(10-26-2017 01:09 PM)megadrone Wrote: It'll get interesting if it's a 2 loss AAC champ vs a 1 loss Toledo or Marshall, neither of whom have fantastic resumes and won't have beaten a world beater in their respective CCG.
A 2 loss USF -- perhaps Marshall looks better, perhaps not. A 2 loss Memphis would probably get the nod.
the problem is that on the East side- if UCF and USF win their next FBS game- they'll both enter that final game with 0-1 loss, meaning if they win head to head and the CCG they have 1 loss.
On the West side Memphis really has 1 tough game left.
For AAC to not get it realistically, Memphis would have to lose that 1 tough game, and then win the CCG.
And if that does happen, Memphis' overall body of work probably looks better than the likely MAC, CUSA and MW champions, and they would still get the bid.
It's a tougher guess if USF has 2 losses. That would mean that both USF and UCF collapsed but USF won the conference. With a weak OOC slate, maybe Marhshall, Toledo or Fresno look as good or better.
For USF to win with 2 losses- they would have to lose to both Houston and then either UConn or Tulsa. And UCF would have to lose to one of SMU, UConn,or Temple, and then USF.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - BePcr07 - 10-26-2017 01:38 PM
It will typically always be the AAC's to lose. Top-to-bottom they are a better conference than the other non-power conferences. They have four schools that were in the Big East (Connecticut, Temple, Cincinnati, South Florida) and most of their schools are in major media markets in the Eastern and Central Time Zones which make recruiting, getting televised games, and attracting people in general (fans, students, etc.) a lot easier. On top of that, they historic and recent basketball powerhouses which draw in a lot.
Compare that to my favorite conference (Mountain West) and its a different story. Boise St is a recognizable name with all games on ESPN. San Diego St, New Mexico, and UNLV give a little credibility to basketball, but not much anymore. Outside of that, the conference is kind of blah lately. The losses of Utah, BYU, and TCU really hurt. The markets are okay (San Diego, SFBA, Las Vegas) but not much to write home about. The conference's best hope is to prove it on the field/court which hasn't happened much lately. It is what it is. The AAC is on its way up and the MWC is on a very slow path down.
I think a shift in realignment in the next 5-10 years will allow a few MWC schools to find a more recognizable home while leave the conference name to the remaining members.
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose? - GoldenWarrior11 - 10-26-2017 01:41 PM
I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?