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RPI Watch - ThreeifbyLightning - 01-22-2017 08:41 PM
(01-13-2017 08:01 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote: Preparing folks to watch MT's RPI fall off a cliff. The next seven games...
232
345
325
338
225
312
346
And hell our last game was against 296.
Heaven forbid we have a bad game and drop one of these. Will we even stay in the 30s after this stretch? This is why an airport meeting will eventually happen. There is no damn reason for a league of this caliber to have six 300+ RPI teams. We have more teams in the 300's than we have under 200.
Well, about half way through this gauntlet, MT has seen its RPI go from 16 prior to the North Texas game to 35. In spite of winning all five comfortably that's a net loss of 19 spots. Unfortunately, it won't get any better for the Raiders. Three of the next four against 300+ teams.
MT should be well into the 40's within two weeks.
RE: RPI Watch - BeagleUSM - 01-22-2017 09:33 PM
MTSU probably has to go 17-1/18-0 in conference play to get an at-large (if they slip up in Birmingham). Sucks, but like you said that RPI is about to drop like a rock.
RE: RPI Watch - WKUFan518 - 01-22-2017 09:39 PM
Yea you might as well not look at the RPI....RPI doesnt matter unless its to justify a P5 school getting into tournament, you could have an RPI in the 20's and be left sitting at home....To get an at large bid you will have to not lose more then 2 games rest of the way and probably make it to the finals to be safe...If you lost 2 rest of the way and lost in semi, you would be sweating it out whether or not you would get in...After seeing most CUSA teams this season I dont think its going to matter, MTSU clearly best team, most experience, Kermit will not even miss this up in conference tournament....MTSU is built for postseason while Marshall, La. Tech, and UAB are not.....
RE: RPI Watch - KAjunRaider - 01-22-2017 10:11 PM
Anything can happen in the tournament.
We were heavily favored one year in the Sun Belt and got put out by FIU in Hot Hoops Hot Springs, Arkansas, missing a lot of free throws in the process.
Hell, I think Western may have won it all that year.
We went 19-1 in regular season.
We did get in & lost to St. Mary's in the damn "play-in" game. We could not stop Dellavedova (sp?)
RE: RPI Watch - MTPiKapp - 01-23-2017 12:46 AM
(01-22-2017 09:39 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote: Yea you might as well not look at the RPI....RPI doesnt matter unless its to justify a P5 school getting into tournament, you could have an RPI in the 20's and be left sitting at home....To get an at large bid you will have to not lose more then 2 games rest of the way and probably make it to the finals to be safe...If you lost 2 rest of the way and lost in semi, you would be sweating it out whether or not you would get in...After seeing most CUSA teams this season I dont think its going to matter, MTSU clearly best team, most experience, Kermit will not even miss this up in conference tournament....MTSU is built for postseason while Marshall, La. Tech, and UAB are not.....
20's is probably hyperbole, two teams with an RPI in the 20's have been left out in the history of the tournament.
RE: RPI Watch - goherd24herdfans - 01-23-2017 08:15 AM
40s and you are screwed.
And if we have a hot shootinf night, its over for whomever we play that night. This year, i hope it comes at the right time.
RE: RPI Watch - ThreeifbyLightning - 01-23-2017 08:31 AM
(01-22-2017 09:39 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote: Yea you might as well not look at the RPI....RPI doesnt matter unless its to justify a P5 school getting into tournament, you could have an RPI in the 20's and be left sitting at home....To get an at large bid you will have to not lose more then 2 games rest of the way and probably make it to the finals to be safe...If you lost 2 rest of the way and lost in semi, you would be sweating it out whether or not you would get in...After seeing most CUSA teams this season I dont think its going to matter, MTSU clearly best team, most experience, Kermit will not even miss this up in conference tournament....MTSU is built for postseason while Marshall, La. Tech, and UAB are not.....
RPI will continue to be an important factor in not only who gets at-large bids but where teams are seeded in the tournament when they do get in, so I reject your assessment. IMO, MT is worthy of a seed anywhere from 7 to 10 but will get saddled with a 13 or 14 because of the strength (or lack there of) in this conference - and that's now assuming we get in at all which will almost assuredly require winning the conference tournament.
I'm highlighting because we as fans have to demand better from our administrations. It may be your team or UAB or ODU or Marshall next year. It won't always be us. We may be one of those 300 teams next year (though that's only happened once in the past 20 years and we've only had three 200+ teams over the last two decades).
I want to continue to shine light on this regardless of who is in the position we are in. It is simply unacceptable for a league that has teams with the brand recognition this conference has and the history many of you have in basketball to be in this position. Whether its finding answers on how to fix this (and there is a long list) or acknowledging failure with this current construct of this league something has to be done about what is an obvious problem that is going in the wrong direction - getting worse not better.
RE: RPI Watch - TechRocks - 01-23-2017 08:37 AM
This just goes to prove that you can slice through your OOC schedule, doing everything right, and then step right in the middle of a crap sammich when conference comes around.
But, I get criticized for complaining about the quality of C-USA basketball.
RE: RPI Watch - Collin_Ellis - 01-23-2017 08:41 AM
(01-23-2017 12:46 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:(01-22-2017 09:39 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote: Yea you might as well not look at the RPI....RPI doesnt matter unless its to justify a P5 school getting into tournament, you could have an RPI in the 20's and be left sitting at home....To get an at large bid you will have to not lose more then 2 games rest of the way and probably make it to the finals to be safe...If you lost 2 rest of the way and lost in semi, you would be sweating it out whether or not you would get in...After seeing most CUSA teams this season I dont think its going to matter, MTSU clearly best team, most experience, Kermit will not even miss this up in conference tournament....MTSU is built for postseason while Marshall, La. Tech, and UAB are not.....
20's is probably hyperbole, two teams with an RPI in the 20's have been left out in the history of the tournament.
I think Tech is built more for a tournament now than in years past. Defense is playing tremendously better in the half court and they actually have a half court offense. That being said, even if they are set up better in no way am I saying they are there. This is MTSU's league to lose. This week will go a long ways in showing if Konkol has this group heading in the right direction.
RE: RPI Watch - WKUFan518 - 01-23-2017 09:14 AM
(01-23-2017 12:46 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:(01-22-2017 09:39 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote: Yea you might as well not look at the RPI....RPI doesnt matter unless its to justify a P5 school getting into tournament, you could have an RPI in the 20's and be left sitting at home....To get an at large bid you will have to not lose more then 2 games rest of the way and probably make it to the finals to be safe...If you lost 2 rest of the way and lost in semi, you would be sweating it out whether or not you would get in...After seeing most CUSA teams this season I dont think its going to matter, MTSU clearly best team, most experience, Kermit will not even miss this up in conference tournament....MTSU is built for postseason while Marshall, La. Tech, and UAB are not.....
20's is probably hyperbole, two teams with an RPI in the 20's have been left out in the history of the tournament.
Sorry meant to say where MTSU will end up in RPI which will be 30's or 40s...Selection committee picks and chooses on when and how to use RPI...
RE: RPI Watch - TechRocks - 01-23-2017 09:54 AM
Pleased to report that C-USA has now moved up from a dismal No. 25 in RPI to a slightly less dismal No. 24 out of 32 conferences. We're on the march!!!!
RE: RPI Watch - Ole Blue - 01-23-2017 11:52 AM
(01-23-2017 09:54 AM)TechRocks Wrote: Pleased to report that C-USA has now moved up from a dismal No. 25 in RPI to a slightly less dismal No. 24 out of 32 conferences. We're on the march!!!!
yay.
RE: RPI Watch - MoodyBlueRaider - 01-23-2017 01:06 PM
It still goes back to scheduling. After MT kicked Vandy's Butt at the Glass House; Bryce Drew let it be known that he wouldn't be scheduling any more visits to our place. So Be It!!!! All of us not only need to beat the Cartel teams that come into our gyms; but we need to keep scheduling games at their venues and beating them when we can. And no more scheduling cupcake schools in Basketball.
RE: RPI Watch - ThreeifbyLightning - 01-23-2017 01:14 PM
(01-23-2017 01:06 PM)MoodyBlueRaider Wrote: And no more scheduling cupcake schools in Basketball.
This is the wrong approach. Some of the teams in our league can barely beat the cupcake teams as it is. What makes you think they are going to consistently beat better teams?
As I have said over and over cumulative wins as a conference are the single most important factor. Losing against better teams isn't going to make our collective RPI better, because SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI. And most people don't understand that SOS is simply comprised of win/loss records.
RE: RPI Watch - ThreeifbyLightning - 01-23-2017 01:23 PM
The path to a multi-bid league is a matter of gaming the system - in essence gaming the RPI numbers.
There are perhaps two to four teams - in a given year - with a legit chance of winning enough games to gain consideration as an at-large. Before one season ends we all know who those teams are going into the next season. We know - more importantly who they are not. We know that FAU, FIU, UTSA, UNT, USM, wkcc, etc., were not going to be very good this year and about a .0001% chance of being a tournament team.
There is zero benefit to these teams scheduling automatic losses. When we have a bunch of teams at 2-11 that kills RPI. Why. Because when we get to conference play that strength of schedule component of playing a team that went 2-11 in non-conference. And when you do that several times a team like MT watches its RPI go from 16 to 35 in a matter of two weeks.
For the other teams that may have a legit chance of winning some tougher non-conference games they should schedule accordingly. MT has the 18th ranked non-conference schedule. That's fine. The teams with the best shot of doing this should do it. Basketball scheduling allows this cause it's typically made within a year of the games being played.
The problem for C-USA is we have lower end teams losing to cupcakes too. That's gotta stop. No amount of gaming the system will work if we have schools that can't even get to .500 in the non-conference with a weak schedule.
RE: RPI Watch - ThreeifbyLightning - 01-23-2017 01:35 PM
By the way, the MWC and WCC have done this well this year to varying degrees. It's working better in the WCC because Gonzaga and St. Mary's aren't losing games in conference they shouldn't.
In the Mountain West, they had only one team under .500 in non-conference and that was a 5-6 record, because non of their weaker teams had a top 100 schedule. The output of that is a league with a 60% win percentage meaning the collective win percentage of everyone plays in conference is 60% vs. the 42% for C-USA.
Both of these leagues are top 10 not because they have a bunch of really good teams but because they didn't have a bunch of lower end teams with only two or three wins. I know the WCC will get two. I'm interested to see how the MWC plays out. The problem there is no one is separating. Nevada lost two games they shouldn't in conference, but as the season drags on they will likely end up with a higher RPI than MT even with a non-conference SOS more than a 100 points worse because their SOS will improve as they play conference opponents with that collective 60% win pct.
RE: RPI Watch - TOPSTRAIGHT - 01-23-2017 01:40 PM
The conference and some coaches-schools continue to shoot themselves in the foot in scheduling and RPI strategy.I guess they are just ignorant or do not care.
Weak year ?--schedule down!
Medium?------sched. medium!
Strong year---sched. up (some).
As Adrienne (Rocky) said,"Just Win!!"
RE: RPI Watch - ThreeifbyLightning - 01-23-2017 01:57 PM
Well said TopsStraight. Problem is some scheduled down and still didn't win. Here's non-conference schedule ranks...
UNT - 270 (4-6) Can live with that. One more win and it doesn't hurt the league.
FIU - 259 (2-9) with two non D1 games
FAU - 239 (2-7) with two non D1 games - maybe they and FIU need to play more of them
USM - 313 (1-9)
wkcc - 319 (6-7) Smart scheduling this year
UTSA - 338 (3-8) Hard to fathom this
As for UTEP not sure they saw this coming, so I don't know how they should have scheduled. But clearly whatever they did it was too hard. I guess Floyd is under illusions of grandeur.
At the end of the day this league just didn't win enough games even with these weak schedules. That's why I say maybe the airport meeting is necessary?? Of those listed above who other than wkcc is fully committed to fielding a championship-caliber basketball program?
RE: RPI Watch - kreed5120 - 01-23-2017 03:02 PM
I feel the MAC is another conference that has committed itself to trying to game the RPI system. As a conference they played 17 total games vs. RPI top 50 teams with Buffalo being a little aggressive and accounting for 4 of those (23.5%). At the same time they padded their win total by going a combined 55-14 against RPI 200+ teams. Right now the MAC RPI sits at 16, but they will probably finish ~12 by the end of the season and was like 10th last year.
The problem the MAC has had is that once your conference bottom dwellers become good enough to consistently beat bad teams, they also become good enough to pull off upsets on your conferences best teams.
RE: RPI Watch - ThreeifbyLightning - 01-23-2017 03:12 PM
(01-23-2017 03:02 PM)kreed5120 Wrote: I feel the MAC is another conference that has committed itself to trying to game the RPI system. As a conference they played 17 total games vs. RPI top 50 teams with Buffalo being a little aggressive and accounting for 4 of those (23.5%). At the same time they padded their win total by going a combined 55-14 against RPI 200+ teams. Right now the MAC RPI sits at 16, but they will probably finish ~12 by the end of the season and was like 10th last year.
The problem the MAC has had is that once your conference bottom dwellers become good enough to consistently beat bad teams, they also become good enough to pull off upsets on your conferences best teams.
MAC was a good example of that last year. At the end of the day you still need to have a couple of really good teams with good records, marginally tougher schedules with a lot wins. That's also similar to where the MWC is this year. It's not a guarantee to avoid the one-bid plague, but it certainly puts your better teams in position to increase their odds of an at-large.
You guys should have played a tougher schedule. You have a team good enough to do it. But at least you won't play any 300 RPI teams/games in your own conference. Middle Tenn will have eight of them.