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+------ Thread: Is 27-4 realistic? (/thread-804741.html)
Is 27-4 realistic? - jarr - 01-08-2017 02:21 PM
With losses @ SMU and another random loss (XU, @ UCF, @UCONN)
...and then win the AAC tourney we could be looking at 3-4 seed IMO.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - robertfoshizzle - 01-08-2017 02:24 PM
With our talent, it is definitely realistic. In SK's senior year, I believe we were 26-5 going into the conference tourney. That team was less talented and the AAC was a better conference then. Anything less than 15-3 in conference is a failure IMO.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - Billy_Bearcat - 01-08-2017 02:25 PM
I don't think so. Probably 6-7 losses
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - Recluse1 - 01-08-2017 02:26 PM
This is a very talented team and one that can play up to 8-9 players reliably, so I'd say yes. Not too many teams have people who can hit jumpshots at 1-5 and not many have the length and athleticism. Factor in the caliber of competition in conference and that we seem to be getting better as the season rolls along, I see very few losses. It's not unrealistic to expect 27-4. I know there's a lot of ball to be played, but I feel pretty good about what remains of the season. It'd be nice to win both the season title and the conference championship.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - TubaCat - 01-08-2017 02:28 PM
I predict 26 - 5 and a 6 seed. I always chalk the Xavier game as a loss (not a knock on our program, Mick just sucks at beating Xavier... I would feel more confident playing a top 10 team). 2 more losses between 2 SMU games, 2 UCF games, Memphis, and the rest of the schedule.
However, I would not be surprised if we went 28 - 3 this season either. I would be shocked if we lost more than 5 games total in the regular season.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - robertfoshizzle - 01-08-2017 02:33 PM
Here are the probabilities from RPI Forecast for reference:
Final Record Expected RPI Probability
29-2 5.2 7.16%
28-3 8.6 21.57%
27-4 12.5 29.20%
26-5 17.0 24.33%
25-6 21.4 11.86%
24-7 26.3 4.55%
23-8 31.7 1.03%
22-9 41.6 0.26%
21-10 57.7 0.03%
They are predicting 27-4 as our most likely record. I will err on the side of caution and predict 26-5. For the first time in a few years, I am going to predict a win against Xavier and 15-3 in conference with no losses to ECU, Tulane, or USF (at least I hope not).
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - Billy_Bearcat - 01-08-2017 02:36 PM
25-6 with a loss to UConn in the first round of the AAC tourney
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - bearcatmark - 01-08-2017 02:36 PM
(01-08-2017 02:21 PM)jarr Wrote: With losses @ SMU and another random loss (XU, @ UCF, @UCONN)
...and then win the AAC tourney we could be looking at 3-4 seed IMO.
Yes... Very realistic. RPI Forecast has UC going 27-4 (or better) more than 50% of the time. If they do that 2-3 seed are in play.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - robertfoshizzle - 01-08-2017 02:38 PM
(01-08-2017 02:26 PM)Recluse1 Wrote: This is a very talented team and one that can play up to 8-9 players reliably, so I'd say yes. Not too many teams have people who can hit jumpshots at 1-5 and not many have the length and athleticism. Factor in the caliber of competition in conference and that we seem to be getting better as the season rolls along, I see very few losses. It's not unrealistic to expect 27-4. I know there's a lot of ball to be played, but I feel pretty good about what remains of the season. It'd be nice to win both the season title and the conference championship.
This. We haven't won a conference tournament championship since 2004. It's no coincidence that our best showing in a conference tournament in the Mick Cronin era led to a Sweet 16 appearance. Building momentum and playing your best basketball late in the season matters if you're going to make a deep tournament run. UConn has been our kryptonite, but they are down and we have our most talented team in at least 5 years. No more excuses -- it's time to cut down the nets in Hartford.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - robertfoshizzle - 01-08-2017 02:45 PM
(01-08-2017 02:36 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote: 25-6 with a loss to UConn in the first round of the AAC tourney
I will lose my mind. So sick of underachieving in the post season. We were supposed to be one of the big dogs in this conference. In 3 AAC tournaments, we have lost in the quarterfinals twice and the semifinals once. Not even a championship game appearance. I am high on this team and very excited for the rest of the season, but neither Mick nor the team can accept another early exit in the conference tournament.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - BeerCat - 01-08-2017 03:19 PM
(01-08-2017 02:38 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:(01-08-2017 02:26 PM)Recluse1 Wrote: This is a very talented team and one that can play up to 8-9 players reliably, so I'd say yes. Not too many teams have people who can hit jumpshots at 1-5 and not many have the length and athleticism. Factor in the caliber of competition in conference and that we seem to be getting better as the season rolls along, I see very few losses. It's not unrealistic to expect 27-4. I know there's a lot of ball to be played, but I feel pretty good about what remains of the season. It'd be nice to win both the season title and the conference championship.
This. We haven't won a conference tournament championship since 2004. It's no coincidence that our best showing in a conference tournament in the Mick Cronin era led to a Sweet 16 appearance. Building momentum and playing your best basketball late in the season matters if you're going to make a deep tournament run. UConn has been our kryptonite, but they are down and we have our most talented team in at least 5 years. No more excuses -- it's time to cut down the nets in Hartford.
Wtf is the tournament is hartford F'ing Connecticut!?!? This damn conference.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - robertfoshizzle - 01-08-2017 03:24 PM
(01-08-2017 03:19 PM)BeerCat Wrote:(01-08-2017 02:38 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:(01-08-2017 02:26 PM)Recluse1 Wrote: This is a very talented team and one that can play up to 8-9 players reliably, so I'd say yes. Not too many teams have people who can hit jumpshots at 1-5 and not many have the length and athleticism. Factor in the caliber of competition in conference and that we seem to be getting better as the season rolls along, I see very few losses. It's not unrealistic to expect 27-4. I know there's a lot of ball to be played, but I feel pretty good about what remains of the season. It'd be nice to win both the season title and the conference championship.
This. We haven't won a conference tournament championship since 2004. It's no coincidence that our best showing in a conference tournament in the Mick Cronin era led to a Sweet 16 appearance. Building momentum and playing your best basketball late in the season matters if you're going to make a deep tournament run. UConn has been our kryptonite, but they are down and we have our most talented team in at least 5 years. No more excuses -- it's time to cut down the nets in Hartford.
Wtf is the tournament is hartford F'ing Connecticut!?!? This damn conference.
I'm not a fan of it either, but I also don't buy it as an excuse every time we lose to UConn. I'm getting tired of losing to UConn in the conference tournament every damn year. For that matter, I'm also tired of losing to Xavier every damn year. I may be setting myself up for disappointment, but I'm expecting results this time around.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - BeerCat - 01-08-2017 03:45 PM
(01-08-2017 03:24 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:(01-08-2017 03:19 PM)BeerCat Wrote:(01-08-2017 02:38 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:(01-08-2017 02:26 PM)Recluse1 Wrote: This is a very talented team and one that can play up to 8-9 players reliably, so I'd say yes. Not too many teams have people who can hit jumpshots at 1-5 and not many have the length and athleticism. Factor in the caliber of competition in conference and that we seem to be getting better as the season rolls along, I see very few losses. It's not unrealistic to expect 27-4. I know there's a lot of ball to be played, but I feel pretty good about what remains of the season. It'd be nice to win both the season title and the conference championship.
This. We haven't won a conference tournament championship since 2004. It's no coincidence that our best showing in a conference tournament in the Mick Cronin era led to a Sweet 16 appearance. Building momentum and playing your best basketball late in the season matters if you're going to make a deep tournament run. UConn has been our kryptonite, but they are down and we have our most talented team in at least 5 years. No more excuses -- it's time to cut down the nets in Hartford.
Wtf is the tournament is hartford F'ing Connecticut!?!? This damn conference.
I'm not a fan of it either, but I also don't buy it as an excuse every time we lose to UConn. I'm getting tired of losing to UConn in the conference tournament every damn year. For that matter, I'm also tired of losing to Xavier every damn year. I may be setting myself up for disappointment, but I'm expecting results this time around.
I honestly don't care that it's in a teams backyard but why Hartford? How about New Orleans Houston Dallas Orlando or Miami? Who the hell wants to travel to Hartford Connecticut in march? Or any time for that matter.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - Bruce Monnin - 01-08-2017 03:53 PM
My daughter and I were just discussing this today. She doesn't want to go to Hartford Connecticut for the conference tournament. She preferred Orlando last year.
I say, Memphis is about the center of the conference, it is warm and has Beale Street. Done.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - Billy_Bearcat - 01-08-2017 04:15 PM
(01-08-2017 03:53 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote: My daughter and I were just discussing this today. She doesn't want to go to Hartford Connecticut for the conference tournament. She preferred Orlando last year.
I say, Memphis is about the center of the conference, it is warm and has Beale Street. Done.
They could also do like the B1G and chose a non member city like Nashville or Atlanta
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - BeerCat - 01-08-2017 04:17 PM
(01-08-2017 04:15 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:(01-08-2017 03:53 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote: My daughter and I were just discussing this today. She doesn't want to go to Hartford Connecticut for the conference tournament. She preferred Orlando last year.
I say, Memphis is about the center of the conference, it is warm and has Beale Street. Done.
They could also do like the B1G and chose a non member city like Nashville or Atlanta
Right. So honestly how did the morons in charge of the aac actually decide that Hartford was a good choice.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - Bcatbog - 01-08-2017 04:27 PM
(01-08-2017 02:24 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: With our talent, it is definitely realistic. In SK's senior year, I believe we were 26-5 going into the conference tourney. That team was less talented and the AAC was a better conference then. Anything less than 15-3 in conference is a failure IMO.
People need to seriously think back to SK's last year. SK was capable to taking over a game at the end and secure a victory. He would take the ball, drive to the hoop - and if fouled drain the FTs. There is NO player on this team of the stature of SK.
IMO somewhere out there will an ugly loss of 2. I really do not care as long as we beat X.
Bob
PS: In honor of SK I made the trip from Cleveland for Senior Night. JJ was part of that night as well. I will remember the emotion of that night forever.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - rath v2.0 - 01-08-2017 05:21 PM
(01-08-2017 03:45 PM)BeerCat Wrote:(01-08-2017 03:24 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:(01-08-2017 03:19 PM)BeerCat Wrote:(01-08-2017 02:38 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:(01-08-2017 02:26 PM)Recluse1 Wrote: This is a very talented team and one that can play up to 8-9 players reliably, so I'd say yes. Not too many teams have people who can hit jumpshots at 1-5 and not many have the length and athleticism. Factor in the caliber of competition in conference and that we seem to be getting better as the season rolls along, I see very few losses. It's not unrealistic to expect 27-4. I know there's a lot of ball to be played, but I feel pretty good about what remains of the season. It'd be nice to win both the season title and the conference championship.
This. We haven't won a conference tournament championship since 2004. It's no coincidence that our best showing in a conference tournament in the Mick Cronin era led to a Sweet 16 appearance. Building momentum and playing your best basketball late in the season matters if you're going to make a deep tournament run. UConn has been our kryptonite, but they are down and we have our most talented team in at least 5 years. No more excuses -- it's time to cut down the nets in Hartford.
Wtf is the tournament is hartford F'ing Connecticut!?!? This damn conference.
I'm not a fan of it either, but I also don't buy it as an excuse every time we lose to UConn. I'm getting tired of losing to UConn in the conference tournament every damn year. For that matter, I'm also tired of losing to Xavier every damn year. I may be setting myself up for disappointment, but I'm expecting results this time around.
I honestly don't care that it's in a teams backyard but why Hartford? How about New Orleans Houston Dallas Orlando or Miami? Who the hell wants to travel to Hartford Connecticut in march? Or any time for that matter.
ESPN.
Is 27-4 realistic? - BigDawg - 01-08-2017 05:49 PM
I think it is definitely possible. I have a gut feeling we beat XU. I think we will wind up with with 2-3 conf losses.
RE: Is 27-4 realistic? - BearcatBeta - 01-08-2017 05:55 PM
Let Uconn$ lose in the first or second round,,moot point