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Opening Lines + Predictions - TroyFootball05 - 05-26-2016 10:35 AM
The season is still a long ways off and I'm surprised there are lines this early. Here are my thoughts. One quick note: there's a lot of new QB's in the league and the ones coming back are pretty good (APP, Idaho, TXST, GS, Troy). I'm not sure about ULM's and NMSU's QB and maybe there's another one I left out, but it will be interesting to see how GSU, ArkSt, USA, and ULL handle having a new QB at the helm.
Ball State -5½
Georgia State
A revenge match for Ball State. I don't think they believed they could lose to GSU, especially at home. Now they travel to Atlanta to make things right. GSU will cover and probably win this matchup unless they have serious QB issues in Game 1. That is certainly possible, but I think GSU gets the win in a nail biter even without great QB play in game one.
Appalachian State
Tennessee -19½
Appalachian State is a legitimate Top 10 G5 team and could sneak up on the Vols. But this is not the Vols of years past. Phil Steele has their offensive and defensive lines both rated in the nation's Top 10. They bring back 17 starters including their QB. This will definitely be a game I watch and I think Tennessee will approach the 19 point spread and maybe blow the top off APP in the second half. A high scoring blowout is not out of the question, but there's a chance APP's defense and TENN's offseason rust will keep this game from getting out of hand. TENN's high returning starter count, and their momentum on their way up the college football latter means they're less likely to sleep on APP.
New Mexico State
UTEP -3½
NMSU showed slight improvement last season but still has a long, long ways to go. UTEP is not a great team, but finished 5-7 last season. The amount to which NMSU was dr jekyll and mr hyde was unreal, so it's difficult to get a read on the aggies other than looking at them from a recent historical perspective. If NMSU wins, it will be on the shoulders of Larry Rose III, but I think UTEP beats NMSU at home in El Paso and beats the spread, if only by 3 or 4.
South Alabama
Mississippi State -34
South Alabama has struggled to find any kind of roster consistency over the past few years. High turnover has plagued the jaguars and this season may be no different, especially with the team's best O-Lineman and Pass Rusher leaving the team during the offseason. The Bulldogs don't take cupcakes lightly and will likely show it on the field. Their D-Line could cause serious problems for USA's new QB. Expect MSU to meet and slightly exceed the 34 point spread.
Toledo
Arkansas State -3
At first glance, based on overall performance throughout the year, you'd have to give the nod to The Rockets to win and cover by as much as 14. But not so fast my friend. Toledo ranks nearly dead last in returning starters, and the rocket defense looks to have been gutted with only three starters returning. Arkansas State brings back more than enough to find some consistency while the rockets look to create a new identity with a new QB. If the Arkansas State defensive line is as good as advertised, it will be a long night for Toledo in Jonesboro. Red Wolves cover by at least 7.
Boise State -19½
Louisiana-Lafayette
Nothing alarms me about this spread, but if its wrong, it will likely be in Boise's favor. Hailed as one of the Top 2 or 3 G5 teams this year and a national title contender by some, this is not a matchup Hudspeth's Louisiana wants right now. The Ragin' Cajuns do avoid the smurf turf by getting them in Lafayette, but the program is not a position to gain a true home field advantage. Like many SBC teams this year, Louisiana-Lafayette will be vetting a set of QBs to find their number one for the season opener. Coming off a 4-8 season, this doesn't appear the best time to upset the Broncos. Boise will meet and likely exceed the spread. I'm not sure a major blowout at home is in the cards, but like APP-TENN, the possibility lingers.
Texas State
Ohio -19
Texas State has a new coaching staff and ranks very low on returning starters. A boone for them, however, is their starting QB Tyler Jones is back to smooth the transition. They travel to Ohio (8-5 in 2015) to face a program that came down to the wire with APP in bowl season. The spread looks high right for this matchup. I don't expect Texas State to shore up the defense completely in Game One, but I do expect you'll see a lot more effort. The Bobcats new offensive system will be new to Ohio coaches and I feel Texas State can gain an "advantage of the unknown". I don't think this is going to be a blowout and Texas State will likely the spread on this one.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - CatMom - 05-26-2016 11:11 AM
I guess our team is so bad they don't even have a line for our game or it wasn't worth posting?
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - TroyFootball05 - 05-26-2016 11:26 AM
(05-26-2016 11:11 AM)CatMom Wrote: I guess our team is so bad they don't even have a line for our game or it wasn't worth posting?
I honestly looked there or four times and didn't see it. I think I thought it read Texas/Ohio State. I'll update it. My apologies.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - moehler - 05-26-2016 12:19 PM
that's a good assessment of the App/Tenn game. I think we are looking at another Clemson game, where we were only down 3-0 mid second, Clemson finally wakes up, takes us seriously, and scores 28 in the last 8 minutes of the second quarter and plays their second and third string in the second half. Hoping we can keep the final score respectable, and get out of there with few injuries.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - StanMolsonMan - 05-26-2016 03:57 PM
If Nevada was only closer, week 1 is where fans like us can make some dollar. dollar. bills. yo. It is about the only time anyone has a leg up on the odds makers.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - panama - 05-26-2016 04:10 PM
If our defense continues 2016 the way they played the last 6 games of 2015 (17.8 ppg and 317 TY/G) I think we will have something special even without Arbuckle.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - Boca Rocket - 05-26-2016 04:35 PM
(05-26-2016 10:35 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: The season is still a long ways off and I'm surprised there are lines this early. Here are my thoughts. One quick note: there's a lot of new QB's in the league and the ones coming back are pretty good (APP, Idaho, TXST, GS, Troy). I'm not sure about ULM's and NMSU's QB and maybe there's another one I left out, but it will be interesting to see how GSU, ArkSt, USA, and ULL handle having a new QB at the helm.
Ball State -5½
Georgia State
A revenge match for Ball State. I don't think they believed they could lose to GSU, especially at home. Now they travel to Atlanta to make things right. GSU will cover and probably win this matchup unless they have serious QB issues in Game 1. That is certainly possible, but I think GSU gets the win in a nail biter even without great QB play in game one.
Appalachian State
Tennessee -19½
Appalachian State is a legitimate Top 10 G5 team and could sneak up on the Vols. But this is not the Vols of years past. Phil Steele has their offensive and defensive lines both rated in the nation's Top 10. They bring back 17 starters including their QB. This will definitely be a game I watch and I think Tennessee will approach the 19 point spread and maybe blow the top off APP in the second half. A high scoring blowout is not out of the question, but there's a chance APP's defense and TENN's offseason rust will keep this game from getting out of hand. TENN's high returning starter count, and their momentum on their way up the college football latter means they're less likely to sleep on APP.
New Mexico State
UTEP -3½
NMSU showed slight improvement last season but still has a long, long ways to go. UTEP is not a great team, but finished 5-7 last season. The amount to which NMSU was dr jekyll and mr hyde was unreal, so it's difficult to get a read on the aggies other than looking at them from a recent historical perspective. If NMSU wins, it will be on the shoulders of Larry Rose III, but I think UTEP beats NMSU at home in El Paso and beats the spread, if only by 3 or 4.
South Alabama
Mississippi State -34
South Alabama has struggled to find any kind of roster consistency over the past few years. High turnover has plagued the jaguars and this season may be no different, especially with the team's best O-Lineman and Pass Rusher leaving the team during the offseason. The Bulldogs don't take cupcakes lightly and will likely show it on the field. Their D-Line could cause serious problems for USA's new QB. Expect MSU to meet and slightly exceed the 34 point spread.
Toledo -3
Arkansas State
At first glance, based on overall performance throughout the year, you'd have to give the nod to The Rockets to win and cover by as much as 14. But not so fast my friend. Toledo ranks nearly dead last in returning starters, and the rocket defense looks to have been gutted with only three starters returning. Arkansas State brings back more than enough to find some consistency while the rockets look to create a new identity with a new QB. If the Arkansas State defensive line is as good as advertised, it will be a long night for Toledo in Jonesboro. Red Wolves cover by at least 7.
Boise State -19½
Louisiana-Lafayette
Nothing alarms me about this spread, but if its wrong, it will likely be in Boise's favor. Hailed as one of the Top 2 or 3 G5 teams this year and a national title contender by some, this is not a matchup Hudspeth's Louisiana wants right now. The Ragin' Cajuns do avoid the smurf turf by getting them in Lafayette, but the program is not a position to gain a true home field advantage. Like many SBC teams this year, Louisiana-Lafayette will be vetting a set of QBs to find their number one for the season opener. Coming off a 4-8 season, this doesn't appear the best time to upset the Broncos. Boise will meet and likely exceed the spread. I'm not sure a major blowout at home is in the cards, but like APP-TENN, the possibility lingers.
Texas State
Ohio -19
Texas State has a new coaching staff and ranks very low on returning starters. A boone for them, however, is their starting QB Tyler Jones is back to smooth the transition. They travel to Ohio (8-5 in 2015) to face a program that came down to the wire with APP in bowl season. The spread looks high right for this matchup. I don't expect Texas State to shore up the defense completely in Game One, but I do expect you'll see a lot more effort. The Bobcats new offensive system will be new to Ohio coaches and I feel Texas State can gain an "advantage of the unknown". I don't think this is going to be a blowout and Texas State will likely the spread on this one.
Toledo returns a lot more than you think. The starter at QB is Logan Woodside, who was the starter in the Bowl game against Ark State.
RB Kareem Hunt will play against State this time around. Last year the OL were all brand new starters. Ark State was their 3rd game as a unit. This year all but the Center return.
Rockets return several starters on Defense that were out with injuries that are not counted as returning starters, along a couple of players(LB,DT) that had starts for Florida, the U of Miami, and a Notre Dame transfer(DE/LB) that would have seen playing time for the Irish last season. Some JUCO's have been brought in to add depth. Toledo was suppose to have an off year last season because of the new OL line,I think you may find the Rockets to be improved this season.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - WinstonTheWolf - 05-26-2016 05:59 PM
I've seen Arkansas State favored by 3 over Toledo. I haven't seen Toledo favored anywhere yet.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/toledo-@-arkansas-state.cfm/date/9-03-16/time/1530#BT
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - Seminole Indian - 05-26-2016 06:37 PM
(05-26-2016 05:59 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote: I've seen Arkansas State favored by 3 over Toledo. I haven't seen Toledo favored anywhere yet.and you probably will not. Maybe they have imaginary lines to go along with imaginary teams.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/toledo-@-arkansas-state.cfm/date/9-03-16/time/1530#BT
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - TroyFootball05 - 05-26-2016 06:41 PM
(05-26-2016 05:59 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote: I've seen Arkansas State favored by 3 over Toledo. I haven't seen Toledo favored anywhere yet.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/toledo-@-arkansas-state.cfm/date/9-03-16/time/1530#BT
Had it backwards. It's fixed.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - Senatobia - 05-26-2016 07:44 PM
(05-26-2016 06:41 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:(05-26-2016 05:59 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote: I've seen Arkansas State favored by 3 over Toledo. I haven't seen Toledo favored anywhere yet.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/toledo-@-arkansas-state.cfm/date/9-03-16/time/1530#BT
Had it backwards. It's fixed.
Need to fix your fix...............................
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - Boca Rocket - 05-26-2016 10:33 PM
(05-26-2016 05:59 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote: I've seen Arkansas State favored by 3 over Toledo. I haven't seen Toledo favored anywhere yet.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/toledo-@-arkansas-state.cfm/date/9-03-16/time/1530#BT
Last season:
Toledo +23 Toledo 16 Arkansas 12
Toledo -4 Toledo 37 Arkansas State 7
Toledo+8 Toledo 44 BGSU 28
Toledo+2 Toledo 32 Temple 17
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - ericsaid - 05-27-2016 08:54 AM
I would be an extremely happy person to see ULL pull off the win against Boise State however, we saw that home field isn't really going to help them when they are over matched (See Akron, 2015).
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - geauxcajuns - 05-27-2016 10:51 AM
(05-27-2016 08:54 AM)ericsaid Wrote: I would be an extremely happy person to see ULL pull off the win against Boise State however, we saw that home field isn't really going to help them when they are over matched (See Akron, 2015).
I seriously doubt we beat Boise. But last season was a display of stubbornness by our coaching staff. Akron is just where is started.
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - WinstonTheWolf - 05-27-2016 12:53 PM
(05-26-2016 10:33 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:(05-26-2016 05:59 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote: I've seen Arkansas State favored by 3 over Toledo. I haven't seen Toledo favored anywhere yet.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/toledo-@-arkansas-state.cfm/date/9-03-16/time/1530#BT
Last season:
Toledo +23 Toledo 16 Arkansas 12
Toledo -4 Toledo 37 Arkansas State 7
Toledo+8 Toledo 44 BGSU 28
Toledo+2 Toledo 32 Temple 17
11/03/15 NIU L 27-32 L -7
11/27/15 WMU L 30-35 L -7
RE: Opening Lines + Predictions - Boca Rocket - 05-29-2016 09:36 AM
(05-27-2016 12:53 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:(05-26-2016 10:33 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:(05-26-2016 05:59 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote: I've seen Arkansas State favored by 3 over Toledo. I haven't seen Toledo favored anywhere yet.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/toledo-@-arkansas-state.cfm/date/9-03-16/time/1530#BT
Last season:
Toledo +23 Toledo 16 Arkansas 12
Toledo -4 Toledo 37 Arkansas State 7
Toledo+8 Toledo 44 BGSU 28
Toledo+2 Toledo 32 Temple 17
11/03/15 NIU L 27-32 L -7
11/27/15 WMU L 30-35 L -7
More important scores are:
1990 TOLEDO 43 STATE 28
1992 TOLEDO 49 STATE 0
2014-15 TOLEDO 63 STATE 44
2015-16 TOLEDO 37 STATE 7